For the purposes of this post, and probably for the rest of my life, I will refer to what is commonly known as the ‘Civil War’ as the ‘War of Secession’. I feel, now that I’m old enough to analyze the war instead of just accepting what I’m spoon-fed, that the War of Secession is a much more apt title.
Having established that, I will now discuss one of the possible outcomes of this whole uproar over the petitions for secession. This post will not discuss the practicality or legality of the petitions. My upcoming post on Politics of US, which should be published this Tuesday, will cover that. This post will assume that the petitions are all shot down and focus on the fallout.
It will probably start small. Protests in the more conservative states, which grow into riots. The state governments may ignore them, or even support them, possibly re-petitioning in a more official fashion. The federal government orders the National Guard to stop the riots, but some of them are sympathetic to the rioters. The Guard will either split and fight amongst itself, or it will side with the rebels (I’m assuming this since the Guardsmen come from the same background as the rioters of the state they are in, generally, so they’re likely to feel the same way).
So the National Guard doesn’t fix the problem, and, in fact, makes it worse. Now the Commander in Chief decides it’s time to call in the Army. The states don’t like that at all. As soon as the Army starts fighting Americans, several states (basically the old Confederacy) declare independence and fight back. The Western states, the ones created after the War of Secession and so without historical ties to either side, will either cheer the Federal Government for taking action or scorn it for turning the Army on American citizens.
At this point, California (who as I understand it has been claiming it could handle itself just fine for some years now), would announce that it, too, is seceding, possibly taking a few Western states with it. By this point, the ‘United States of America’ is limited to the Northeastern quadrant of what used to be a country, and numerous splinter factions begin to emerge.
When the fighting dies down somewhat and the dust settles, we would be left with the USA, which would control pretty much the same territory as the Union at the beginning of the first War of Secession. South of them, in the territory occupied by the Confederacy, would be the New Confederacy (possibly just called the Confederacy again), which may or may not include the sovereign Republic of Texas. To the West, the New California Republic takes up all of California and probably Nevada as well. In between the NCR and the other two or three factions are states that didn’t really join any of the other factions and have now formed a loose alliance, with survivalist nuts wielding sniper rifles making sure that the bigger factions don’t impose on them.
This is, really, an optimistic outcome to the Second War of Secession. It’s more likely, I think, that all government breaks down for a time, allowing people to re-form whatever sort of societies they can form and want to form.
Whatever happens, it certainly will be interesting.